Staying Level-Headed: Why Evidence Matters More Than Ever

Conor Henry – Head of Valuations

In Middle Eastern real estate, we are no strangers to occasional turbulence. Whether driven by geopolitical shifts or global economic cycles, there are inevitably moments where the market hits a “pause” button.

Lately, many of my clients across the MENA region have been asking me the same fundamental questions:

– What is happening to liquidity?

– Will prices hold?

– What does this mean for my portfolio?

I have always believed that while headlines can be noisy, your property strategy should remain steady. When the climate shifts, I see the role of a valuer move from not just providing a professional opinion, to a vital strategic anchor for the client.

When the Data Goes Quiet

It is relatively straightforward for me to value a property when the market is buoyant. It becomes far more complex when sentiment turns cautious and traditional indicators begin to blur. Currently, I am observing a few familiar patterns:

• A lull in liquidity: I often see buyers and sellers enter a “wait and see” phase, which leads to a temporary dip in transaction volumes.
• The “Expectation Gap”: I notice a widening disconnect between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay, which can make “market value” feel like a moving target.
• Shifting Sentiment: I know that public mood can change overnight, often well before actual deals are signed to prove it.

In these moments, there is often a temptation to apply arbitrary “haircuts” or speculative discounts just to be safe. I disagree. Professional valuation must remain an anchor of fact, especially when the wider market feels uncertain.

Facts over Forecasts

My approach is simple: I filter out the speculation and focus on what is observable. As I often tell my clients:

“Value is not a prediction of the future; it is a snapshot of the present based on the most recent, verifiable market interactions.”

As a valuer, I must resist reacting to general economic anxiety. In my view, applying a discount without a solid analytical reason is just as unhelpful as ignoring a genuine market shift. It is a delicate balance, staying objective while intensifying my scrutiny of all comparable evidence as well as keeping current market conditions in mind.

The Discipline of Global Standards

As a Chartered surveyor with over two decades of valuation practice, I rely on the RICS Red Book as my professional guardrail. To me, these global standards are essential for navigating complexity with integrity.

One tool I find particularly useful is VPGA 10, which addresses “material valuation uncertainty.” If evidence is truly thin or a major shock has distorted the market, I believe in absolute transparency. By using an uncertainty clause when appropriate, I am providing you with a clear-eyed view of the market’s current transparency so you can make informed decisions.

Regional Resilience

It is also worth looking at the bigger picture. While short-term jitters are real, the long-term track record of the UAE and the wider region is exceptionally strong. From what I see on the ground, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have matured into sophisticated global hubs, supported by:

• Sensible Regulation: Practical reforms that have significantly enhanced market transparency.
• Strategic Infrastructure: Constant investment that underpins long-term asset value.
• Global Capital: A diverse and resilient pool of international investors.

My Perspective

Whatever the global headlines may suggest, my mandate remains unchanged: to provide you with a realistic, defensible, and well-reasoned assessment of your assets.

By combining rigorous methodology with my deep local expertise, I ensure that even when the outlook feels foggy, your real estate strategy stays on solid ground.